Long‐term variations and temporal scaling of hydroclimatic time series with focus on the German part of the Elbe River Basin          下载免费PDF全文

D. Markovic  M. Koch 《水文研究》2014,28(4):2202-2211

Long‐term variations and temporal scaling of mean monthly time series of river flow, precipitation, temperature, relative humidity, air pressure, duration of bright sunshine, degree of cloud cover, short wave radiation, wind speed and potential evaporation within or in vicinity of the German part of the Elbe River Basin are analyzed. Statistically significant correlations between the 2–15 year scale‐averaged wavelet spectra of the hydroclimatic variables and the North Atlantic Oscillation‐ and Arctic Oscillation index are found which suggests that such long‐term patterns in hydroclimatic time series are externally forced. The Hurst parameter estimates (H) based on the Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA) indicate persistence for discharge, precipitation, wind speed, air pressure and the degree of cloud cover, all having an annual cycle and a broad low‐frequency distribution. Also, DFA H parameter estimates are higher for discharge than for precipitation. The major long‐term quasi‐periodic variability modes of precipitation detected using Singular Spectrum Analysis coincide with those detected in the discharge time series. Upon subtraction of these low‐frequency quasi‐periodic modes, the DFA H parameter estimates suggest absence of the persistence for both precipitation and discharge. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

节理分布空间变异的地下洞室稳定性概率分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

王川  冷先伦  李海轮  李刚 《岩土力学》2021,(1):224-232,244

以岩土材料力学参数空间变异性的"点估计-有限元"分析方法为基础,结合节理分析时自身存在几何模型、网格划分等特性,扩展了该方法在节理分布空间变异性分析方面的适用性,明确了具体的研究步骤与方法。以某抽水蓄能水电站为例,通过分析节理空间变异性对围岩变形与塑性区的影响,验证了扩展后该方法的准确性和合理性。对工程案例开挖揭露的1400余条节理进行概率统计,建立了节理空间变异性的有限元分析模型;采用扩展后的概率分析方法,研究了节理分布对地下洞室群围岩开挖稳定性的影响。研究结果表明:(1)对比概率分析得到的围岩变形概率分布与现场监测结果,发现剔除变形异常点后监测变形量值大部分位于得到的位移概率分布范围内,说明节理的空间变异性是导致监测变形波动的主要影响因素;(2)围岩变形概率分布的标准差能有效识别出围岩开挖变形受节理空间变异性的影响程度,对于所给出的案例依次为:机窝>边墙>顶拱;(3)围岩塑性区的概率分区能合理判断地下洞室群开挖时受节理影响较大的区域和范围,为工程施工的支护设计提供依据。  相似文献   

高低频系统相互作用对Rossby波破碎过程的影响     

张潮  谭言科  李崇银  平已川 《大气科学》2019,43(2):221-232

利用美国国家环境预报中心和能源部（NCEP/DOE）的逐日再分析资料（NCEP-DOE AMIP-Ⅱ）,对2010年12月20日发生在北太平洋一次典型的反气旋式波破碎（AWB）事件进行研究,分析了波破碎过程中等熵位涡场的演变特征,揭示了波破碎过程中高频扰动以及低频信号的逐日演变特征,并对2010年冬季350 K等熵面上逐日高频位涡（PV）扰动和低频变化做经验正交函数（EOF）分析,得到了其主要模态,并从等熵位涡方程出发研究了波破碎过程中位涡高、低频变化的原因。研究表明,波破碎过程中高频低PV空气从北太平洋西部日本附近沿东北方向向对流层上层侵入,而来自阿拉斯加湾附近的高频高PV空气向对流层下层侵入。高频位涡场EOF分解得到的前两个模态共同描述了北太平洋中纬度地区自西向东移动的天气尺度波列;低频位涡场EOF分解的第一模态在北太平洋呈弧形波列结构。天气尺度波在传播过程中受到低频场的平流作用逐渐偏离其传播主要模态的位置,并发生破碎,同时高频流场对高频位涡的平流可以产生低频变化,使得低频变化的空间形态向其冬季主要模态转变。  相似文献   

气候系统模式FGOALS模拟的南亚夏季风：偏差和原因分析     

黄昕  周天军  吴波  陈晓龙 《大气科学》2019,43(2):437-455

本文通过与观测和再分析资料的对比,评估了LASG/IAP发展的气候系统模式FGOALS的两个版本FGOALS-g2和FGOALS-s2对南亚夏季风的气候态和年际变率的模拟能力,并使用水汽收支方程诊断,研究了造成降水模拟偏差的原因。结果表明,两个模式夏季气候态降水均在陆地季风槽内偏少,印度半岛附近海域偏多,在降水年循环中表现为夏季北侧辐合带北推范围不足。FGOALS-g2中赤道印度洋"东西型"海温偏差导致模拟的东赤道印度洋海上辐合带偏弱,而FGOALS-s2中印度洋"南北型"海温偏差导致模拟的海上辐合带偏向西南。水汽收支分析表明,两个模式中气候态夏季风降水的模拟偏差主要来自于整层积分的水汽通量,尤其是垂直动力平流项的模拟偏差。一方面,夏季阿拉伯海和孟加拉湾的海温偏冷而赤道西印度洋海温偏暖,造成向印度半岛的水汽输送偏少;另一方面,对流层温度偏冷,冷中心位于印度半岛北部对流层上层,同时季风槽内总云量偏少,云长波辐射效应偏弱,对流层经向温度梯度偏弱以及大气湿静力稳定度偏强引起的下沉异常造成陆地季风槽内降水偏少。在年际变率上,观测中南亚夏季风环流和降水指数与Ni?o3.4指数存在负相关关系,但FGOALS两个版本模式均存在较大偏差。两个模式中与ENSO暖事件相关的沃克环流异常下沉支和对应的负降水异常西移至赤道以南的热带中西印度洋,沿赤道非对称的加热异常令两个模式中越赤道环流季风增强,导致印度半岛南部产生正降水异常。ENSO相关的沃克环流异常下沉支及其对应的负降水异常偏西与两个模式对热带南印度洋气候态降水的模拟偏差有关。研究结果表明,若要提高FGOALS两个版本模式对南亚夏季风气候态模拟技巧,需减小耦合模式对印度洋海温、对流层温度及云的模拟偏差;若要提高南亚夏季风和ENSO相关性模拟技巧需要提高模式对热带印度洋气候态降水以及与ENSO相关的环流异常的模拟能力。  相似文献   

模式内部变率引起的1.5℃和2℃升温阈值出现时间模拟的不确定性研究     

季涤非  刘利  李立娟  孙超  于馨竹  李锐喆  张诚  王斌 《气候变化研究进展》2019,15(4):343-351

模式内部变率是模拟结果不确定性的重要来源,然而它对于1.5℃和2℃升温阈值出现时间不确定性的影响尚不清楚。因此,基于耦合模式比较计划第五阶段(CMIP5)的多模式数据研究了模式内部变率对1.5℃和2℃升温阈值出现时间不确定性的影响以及对未来排放情景的敏感性。结果表明,模式内部变率对升温阈值出现时间模拟的影响与外强迫的影响相当,单个模式内部不同成员达到全球平均1.5℃或2℃增温的年份相差2~12年;其影响具有明显的空间差异,影响极大值出现在欧亚大陆以北洋面、白令海峡周围区域、北美东北部及其与格陵兰岛之间的海域、南半球高纬地区等;低排放情景下模式内部变率的影响大于高排放情景。  相似文献   

Interannual Salinity Variability in the Tropical Pacific in CMIP5 Simulations     

Hai ZHI  Rong-Hua ZHANG  Pengfei LIN  Peng YU 《大气科学进展》2019,36(4):378-396

Salinity variability and its causes in the tropical Pacific are analyzed using observations, reanalysis products and model simulations. The mixed-layer salinity(MLS) budget analyses from observations and reanalysis products indicate that its interannual evolution is closely related to ENSO and is predominantly governed by surface forcing and surface advection in the western-central equatorial Pacific. It is found that the observed MLS tendency leads Nin?o3.4 by about 12 months due to the effect of negative freshwater flux(evaporation minus precipitation). These observation-based analyses are used to evaluate the corresponding simulation using GFDL-ESM2 M. It is evident that the model can simulate the spatiotemporal variations of MLS with some discrepancies compared to observations. In the warm pool of the equatorial Pacific the MLS tendency in the model is sensitive to ocean dynamics, however model biases cause the tendency to be underestimated. In particular, the freshwater flux is overestimated while the ocean surface zonal current and vertical velocity at the base of the mixed layer are underestimated. Due to model biases in representing the related physics, the effects of surface forcing on the simulated MLS budget are overestimated and those of subsurface and surface advection are relatively weak. Due to weaker surface advection and subsurface forcing than observed, the simulated compensations for surface forcing are suppressed, and the simulated MLS tendency that leads Nin?o3.4 by 8–10 months, which is shorter than the observed lead time. These results are useful for the interpretation of observational analyses and other model simulations in the tropical Pacific.  相似文献   

INTERDECADAL VARIABILITY OF QUASI-BIENNIAL OSCILLATION OF STRATOSPHERIC ZONAL WIND     

韩浦城  简茂球  林晓霞 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2019,25(2):162-170

This study investigates the interdecadal variability of Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) based on the sounding data in the stratosphere, ERA-40 and ERA-interim reanalysis data in the past 62 years. The QBO periodicity experiences a significant interdecadal variability; the longer (shorter) the mean period, the smaller (larger) the amplitude of variation is. The QBO amplitude varies in a cycle around 10 to 15 years and in an out-of-phase correlation with the period. In addition, there is an increasing trend of the QBO amplitude in 30 to 10 hPa, while a little declining trend in 70 to 40 hPa. The deviation of the QBO zonal wind extremum centers from the equator also shows interdecadal variability. The deviation location of the easterly core is generally in the reverse side to the westerly core, which means that when the easterly core is on one side of a hemisphere, the westerly core is on the other side.  相似文献   

Quantifying the variability and allocation patterns of aboveground carbon stocks across plantation forest types,structural attributes and age in sub-tropical coastal region of KwaZulu Natal,South Africa using remote sensing     

《Applied geography (Sevenoaks, England)》2015

Quantifying the variability and allocation patterns of aboveground carbon stocks across plantation forests is central in deriving accurate and reliable knowledge and understanding of the extent to which these species contribute to the global carbon cycle and towards minimizing climate change effects. The principal objective of this study was to quantify the variability and allocation patterns of aboveground carbon stocks across Pinus and Eucalyptus plantation forests, tree-structural attributes (i.e. stems, barks, branches and leaves) and age groups, using models developed based on remotely sensed data. The results of this study demonstrate that aboveground carbon stocks significantly (α = 0.05) vary across different plantation forest species types, structural attributes and age. Pinus taeda and Eucalyptus grandis species contained aboveground carbon stocks above 110 t C ha⁻¹, and Eucalyptus dunii had 20 t C ha⁻¹. Across plantation forest tree structural attributes, stems contained the highest aboveground carbon stocks, when compared to barks, branches and leaves. Aboveground carbon stock estimates also varied significantly (α = 0.05) with stand age. Mature plantation forest species (i.e. between 7 and 20 years) contained the highest aboveground carbon stock estimates of approximately 120 t C ha⁻¹, when compared to younger species (i.e. between 3 and 6 years), which had approximately 20 t C ha⁻¹. The map of aboveground carbon stocks showed distinct spatial patterns across the entire study area. The findings of this study are important for understanding the contribution of different plantation forest species, structural attributes and age in the global carbon cycle and possible climate change moderation measures. Also, this study demonstrates that data on vital tree structural attributes, previously difficult to obtain, can now be easily derived from cheap and readily-available satellite data for inventorying carbon stocks variability.  相似文献   

土壤湿度年际异常对中国春、夏季气候模拟的影响     

孙莉娟  陈海山  潘敖大  周晶  李启芬 《气象科学》2015,35(5):521-533

基于NCAR大气模式CAM3.1模式,设计了有、无土壤湿度年际异常两组试验对中国区域近40a(1961-2000年)气候进行了模拟。从气候态和年际变率的角度,通过分析两组试验的差值场来探讨土壤湿度年际异常对气候模拟的影响,并初步探讨了影响的可能机制。结果表明:模式模拟的温度和降水对土壤湿度的年际异常非常敏感,土壤湿度的年际变化对中国春夏季气候及其年际变率均有显著影响。当不考虑土壤湿度年际异常时,模式模拟的春夏季平均温度、最高温度、最低温度在我国大范围内降低,春夏季降水在东部大部分地区明显减少,西部增加。而模式模拟的春夏季温度、降水年际变率在中国大部分地区减弱。但当考虑土壤湿度的年际变化,则能在一定程度上提高模式对气候年际变率的模拟能力。在进一步分析表明土壤湿度年际异常时,主要通过改变地表能量通量和环流场,对温度、降水产生影响。当不考虑土壤湿度年际异常时,地表净辐射通量减少,地表温度降低,感热通量减少。感热通量差值场的空间变化和温度差值场的空间变化一致,感热通量对温度有一定影响。而潜热通量差值场的空间变化和降水的差值场的空间变化一致,可见降水受地表潜热通量的影响。土壤湿度年际异常引起的环流场的变化也是导致气候变化的原因之一,地表能量和环流场年际变率的改变对春夏季气候年际变率存在一定影响。  相似文献   

全球变暖减缓背景下欧亚秋冬温度变化特征和原因   总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1  

王迪  何金海  祁莉  栾健  蔡波 《气象科学》2015,35(5):534-542

采用气候序列变化趋势诊断和一元线性回归等分析法,研究和讨论了2000-2012年和1976-1999年两种年代际背景下全球陆地不同区域的年平均地表温度的变化特征。发现欧亚大陆中高纬度地区是对全球变暖减缓贡献最大的区域。且该地区在2000年以来秋季年代际增温,而冬季年代际降温。从同期大气环流的配置来看,在对流层低层,秋季西伯利亚高气压年代际减弱,而冬季西伯利亚高气压年代际增强。在对流层中高层,秋季从西欧至东北亚为"高-低-高"的高度场异常分布,纬向环流加强,经向环流减弱,而冬季极地与贝加尔湖地区的高度场呈偶极型分布,东亚大槽加深,经向环流加强。进一步研究发现,超前一个季节的喀拉海附近的海冰与欧亚中高纬度秋冬两季温度的年代际变率有着密切的联系。一方面,夏季(秋季)海冰减少影响秋季(冬季)中高纬度大气环流;另一方面,夏季(秋季)海冰减少,使得秋季(冬季)从北极至中高纬度大陆的对流层低层水汽含量增加(减少),大气逆辐射增强(减弱)导致秋季(冬季)增温(降温)。  相似文献